Todd Stong is a retired US military engineer.
For many years, has wintered in the Lake Chapala region of central Mexico where he has been deeply involved on clean water projects for the Mexicans in that region.
His comments about life in Mexico are interesting and informative.
The #1 word in my evolving paper that I have been asked to write for the virus in Mexico is “UNCERTAINTY.” It challenges me on every path as I press on to define what is happening. Poor data for the public and normal ignorance is being compounded by politically motivated misinformation. Just recall that President Obrador back on 10 May told Mexico they were at the peak. At that point, my calculation suggested they were at just 6%, not 50%. Yes, he wished to make the nation’s 129 million citizens feel better. Since then at least two more erroneous peaks have been announced by senior government officials. The best number for which to have some reliance is the count of deaths. Yet in even in this count are those “suspected” dying from the virus, “probable” deaths due to the virus and finally “confirmed” deaths due to the virus. Counts of cases are highly in error and the number of tests is pathetic.
Indeed after 6 months of learning of the virus progressing in Europe and the USA, there are so many things that are unsure, that are mysteries.
As of 16 Aug 2020
Mexico USA
Deaths/cases 11% 1 out of 9 persons 3% 1 out of 32
Deaths for the national population 1 out of 2710 1 out of 1907
Testing national population 1 out of 109 persons 1 out of 4.5 persons Testing often confined to those at a hospital
Among the things I am beginning to sense as most reliable are these below for the USA:
- 98% of the people will almost surely not die of this virus
- Of those who test positive 85-90% will not be admitted to a hospital but told to go home and seek the care of a family doctor
- Of the 10-15% that are admitted to a hospital 1/4th to 1/3rd will die, with over 90% being over age 60
- For those under age 45, this virus may be no worse than the normal annual flu which leads to 50-60,000 deaths/yr in the USA and more in Mexico
- Those over age 45, however, will see 2 to 3 times as much death from this virus as from the normal flu
- For those under age 45, for the sake of (1) avoiding added deaths derived from the lockdowns (postponed operations, lack of testing for life-threatening ailments, suicides, deaths due to violence, drug overdoses, etc), and the sake of (2) serious damage to the national economy, it is best for them to go back to work.
Sensing in Mexico includes:
- The death rate in Mexico of the 50% below the poverty line may be double that of the other half above that line
- Due to my past month being in travel towards my home in PA until December, plus being asked to address some other fears, I am behind in my weekly updating of what I thought I knew. My 20+ page draft paper changes weekly. In the next few weeks, I will offer a final writing. I expect 30-50 deaths per each 50,000/person county about the lake. The stopping of the weekend invasion from Guadalajara to lakeside is regrettable. Five months ago, in March, I was predicting 65-75,000 deaths for the 129 million in Mexico (1 out of each 1720). We are today, 14 Aug, at 56,500 (1 out of 2283) for Mexico, which is about 11% of total reported cases. It is that high mostly because the nation does not know the actual total number of cases due to terrible reporting and very low rates of testing people other than those at or near the hospitals. Given new ideas are evolving worldwide weekly on this virus, I am sensing my past estimate was pretty good for that many months past when the virus in Mexico at that time was about 25% along the way.
I do not have a team of experts, a lab or a computer program. Media seeks to publish the sensational numbers of cases which is one of the poorest bits of data. I prefer to track hospitalizations and deaths per million total populations that have similar cultures to Mexico (Italy/Spain). Then I adjust deaths downward first for the low median age of 28 in Mexico versus 47 in Western Europe and the USA and second for the fact that the elderly in families are not sent off to die in rest/nursing homes as in the USA. I have a younger sister in such a death trap. Of the 450 in that facility in PA, 65% have died so far. Next for Mexico, I adjust upward the possible fatality count for the nation’s poor health care system, and its poor citizen health due to diabetes (3 times the death risk expected) and obesity. Being #1 for soda pop in the world is a major reason for shorter life at all ages in Mexico. Cola drinks, 400 times more acid than milk and made from phosphoric acid are the major culprits.
- Perhaps due to the multi-generational extended family mode in Mexico, the spread of the virus has been much slower than in nations with their people rapidly rushing about. Often in Mexico, 3 generations of a family are located within 3-6 blocks of a village. Many nations, with much fewer poor, reached their peak for the virus in 2 months and then came back down in 3 months. By contrast Mexico, with near 50% poor, seems to be taking 5-6 months to reach its peak and may take 3-4 months to come back down if not longer.
