JR.’s not really as worried as he looks but he is very troubled.
First, he recognizes that his Liberal Party is as low in the polls as it can be. However, he’s been on the political ropes a number of times and his experience tells him it’s too soon to panic.
The federal election is at least a year away, JR. recognizes some things need to be done. Hence, he visited the Durham-Pickering-Uxbridge ridings recently, definitely a sign that there is some concern in the West Block. Additionally, to reinforce that point, JR. had ministers Anita Anand and Francois Philippe Champagne visited the Burlington-Oakville area. These kind of visits are not vacations. The man is concerned.
Take note, JR is troubled by many more things than the polls. Malicious gossip, as is normal, is castigating him for his separation. Why, who’s at fault…who cares. It’s still a troubling experience that takes its toll on his peace of mind. And he has practical custody of his 3 kids, an additional stress in his life.
Then, the leader is ‘long in the tooth’ as politicians go. Two terms, just under a decade, old in the political arena, not because he is chronologically old but because the electorate become bored with any leader who has been around for ‘too long.’
Next, conflicts with provincial leaders, no matter whether justified or not, these pockets of discontent are problems. Alberta and Saskatchewan premiers are balking at his policies. His seeming electioneering favouritism of the Atlantic provinces is polarizing the country into regions that feel cheated, deprived and rejected.
Next, Jagmeet Singh is a ‘fair weather partner’ who is needed because the Liberals are a minority government dependent on the NDP to remain as the government. But support for Singh is not stable and strong. He is being criticized for being a hypocritical or opportunistic socialist who likes the trappings of capitalism. Additionally, he has not moved the NDP party on the support spectrum in the years as leader. There’s that boredom factor again.
Speaking of boredom, the talk about a leader change just doesn’t go away for the Liberals. There’s no definitive assurance that there will be a leadership change. Trudeau has demonstrated his power as a campaigner, especially when he looks like he’s on the ropes. Party big whigs undoubtedly recognize his value as a powerful campaigner. But a significant faction also interpret the writing on the wall as ‘it’s time for a leadership change.’ Besides, there are a number of possible leadership candidates likely chomping at the bit: Chrysta Freeland obviously but not likely as she is a woman, strident in style and questionable in charisma; federal foreign minister Melanie Joly, low key but steadfast, close to the leader, too close claimed by malicious gossipers. Joly has a quiet manner that has served her well throughout her political career. Anita Anand, again a woman which is a strike to too many voters still but this politician has handled challenging portfolios….Foreign Affairs, Defence, strong candidate for leader. Besides these strong women candidates, there is one male minister who might be in line as potentially a leadership candidate, Francois Philippe Champagne, internationally known, not a household name but better known than others in the cabinet. Rule out the other possibilities based on questionable performance in their ministries or not elevating themselves as publically known, Bill Blair, Harjit Singh.
There’s a year at least before the election, time for many things to change, for much to devolve and Junior’s keep his cards close to his vest. The economy is in flux, inflation is remains steady, prices for everything are still too high, unemployment numbers vary depending on the source and their slant, immigration may be too unregulated, but overall, many people feel life in Canada is fairly good.
Finally, Poillievre is too high in the polls which is worrisome if you are a Liberal. Another reason why Junior is not eager to enter into any campaign, just yet.
